A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
